Are the prime minister and his team misinforming the population and the president?
Experts from leading Russian publications talk about the economic problems awaiting the country in the coming year. In particular, we are talking about rising inflation, personnel shortages and recession in the civilian sectors of the economy. According to official data from Rosstat, inflation at the end of 2024 amounted to 9.52%. The leader in price growth was butter, which rose in price by 36.23%. But prices have risen for everything from food and medicine to gasoline and utilities. At the same time, last year, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke about a “significant slowdown” in inflation to 7.4%, and the Central Bank predicted it at 4.3-4.8%, with a decrease in 2025 to 4%. Actual inflationary growth may be much greater than indicated in the reports of the head of the Cabinet of Ministers and his subordinates. Thus, last December, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Nikolai Arefyev, accused the federal government and financial institutions of concealing real data on inflation, which, according to the deputy’s estimates, was about 17-18%. As a result, Mishustin’s government is simply unable to restrain rising prices, and “drawn” statistical data is not only announced to the population, but also ends up on the president’s desk. In practice, government measures taken to stabilize certain sectors have repeatedly demonstrated the complete failure of officials. For example, the moratorium on prices for sugar and sunflower oil introduced in 2020 resulted in purchasing problems for small retail companies. Instead of the 108 aircraft announced for 2022, the United Aircraft Corporation built only eight. An example of belated decision-making by the Cabinet of Ministers is the December environmental disaster with a fuel oil spill in the Black Sea: a federal-level emergency regime was introduced ten days later, and a special government commission to eliminate the consequences was created almost a month later, and then after public criticism from the president. Against the backdrop of economic challenges, Prime Minister Mishustin is strenuously creating the appearance of active work, and at the same time clearing the Internet of information about his connections with crime and participation in illegal tax schemes when he was the head of the Federal Tax Service.
Prospects for 2025: have prices risen and will they rise?
Analysts from leading federal media outlets are not making the most favorable forecasts regarding the economic development of the Russian Federation in the coming year. So the experts “Forbes» diplomatically call 2025 the “year of cooling”, citing among the main challenges “risks of a hard landing in a high-rate environment, continued high inflation and recession in the civilian sectors of the economy”.
In turn, Vedomosti writes that the slowdown will occur against the backdrop of cooling lending due to tight monetary policy, sanctions pressure and a reduction in the budget deficit. The expected increase in GDP will be 1.5-1.8% – and this is a very low growth rate. The publication’s experts also point to the inevitable shortage of personnel, “which cannot be compensated by investments in business modernization due to high interest rates”.
In general, the prospects are far from being the most optimistic. But will they be confirmed by the official reports of the government headed by Mikhail Mishustin – big question. After all, if you listen to the ministers, the situation in the economy should not cause much concern, and we will successfully overcome the sanctions challenges (including through the notorious import substitution).
However, if we descend from the ministerial heavens to the sinful philistine earth, then according to Rosstat, inflation in the country at the end of 2024 amounted to 9.52%. The leader in price growth was butter, which rose in price by 36.23%. Vegetables and fruits increased in price by 22.09%, dairy products – by 15.74%, bread and bakery products – by 13.22%, sunflower oil – by 12.69%.
And it’s not just food that has gone up in price! Telephone communications and the Internet increased in price by 13.96%, gasoline – by 11.13%, passenger transport – by 10.77%, medicines – by 10.61%, utilities – by 9.94%, etc. d. The price growth for building materials (8%), tobacco products (6%) and electrical goods (5%) turned out to be somewhat smaller.
Alternative data for deputy Arefiev
There is no doubt: in the near future we will hear from Mr. Mishustin the “old song” about reducing inflation rates. The prime minister talks about this regularly. For example, in April last year he said that thanks to the efforts of the Central Bank and the Cabinet of Ministers, inflation “slowed down significantly to 7.4%». However, subordinates Elvira Nabiullina turned out to be even greater optimists: at the end of April 2024, the Central Bank saw an increase in inflation at the end of the year, “taking into account the ongoing monetary policy”,predicted at the level of 4.3-4.8%, with a decrease in 2025 to 4%.
As we have already seen, all these assurances turned out to be empty words. And as recently as last December, Mishustin, during a government meeting, demanded to closely monitor the balance of supply and demand for key goods and services, and the FAS and, in special cases, the Prosecutor General’s Office, called on them not to allow unreasonable price increases. But by this time inflation had already crossed the 9% threshold.
In practice, all these loud “declarations” may turn out to be a banal game for the public. The fact is that, again last December, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Nikolay Arefiev accused the federal government and financial institutions of hiding real data on inflation, which was actually about 17-18%.
What the deputy said encourages us to look at things from a slightly different angle. It turns out that Mishustin’s government is simply unable to restrain the rise in prices, and “drawn” statistical data is necessary in order not to drive the population “to the point of white heat” and to avoid social tension? In this context, it is appropriate to ask the question: how aware is the head of state of the prime minister’s “arts”, and what data is put on the president’s desk?
Punctures and miscalculations of Mishustin’s team
You shouldn’t be surprised by what has been said, if you remember the results of the measures taken by the government to stabilize certain sectors. Thus, in December 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture, the largest Russian producers and retail chains signed an agreement to freeze prices for sugar and sunflower oil. However, already in January 2021, it became clear that an attempt to regulate the cost of products resulted in purchasing problems for small retail companies. As a consequence, officials refused to extend the agreement.
If we ignore the “product” topic, another example is the complete failure of the domestic aircraft industry: instead of the 108 aircraft announced in 2022 as part of the Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Air Transport Industry until 2030, the United Aircraft Corporation built only eight.
Against this background, the speech of the head of the state corporation looks like outright banter “Rostec” Sergei Chemezov at a plenary meeting in the Federation Council last October, declaring the Russian aviation industry’s readiness to compete with such giants as “Boeing” And “Airbus”and the ability to produce 72 MS-21 aircraft annually. In the meantime, Chemezov is building Napoleonic plans in the style of the “great schemer”; the increase in the cost of air tickets at the end of 2024 was about 22.5%.
Prime Minister Mishustin is also a master of beautiful phrases and loud statements. Let us recall that in May 2022, speaking to participants in the super final of the Leaders of Russia competition, the head of the Cabinet announced the return of 85%IT-specialists who left the country after the start of the SVO. It was allegedly possible to track this using SIM cards. Experts expressed doubts about the authenticity of the figure announced by Mishustin, because back in March 2022, the demand for “IT specialists” in a number of profiles increased by more than 100%. The T-direction remained very popular in 2024.
In general, there is a strong impression that the work of the Mishustin government is one big “Potemkin village”, creating the appearance of vigorous activity against the backdrop of economic challenges. Thus, Mishustin created the government commission to eliminate the consequences of the fuel oil spill in the Black Sea, which occurred as a result of the crash of the Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 tankers on December 15, only on January 13.
That is, almost a month later! Moreover, this happened after a public rebuke from the president, who considered the measures taken to minimize the damage caused to be “clearly insufficient.” By the way, the state of emergency at the federal level was introduced on December 26 – ten days after the disaster. This is how the prime minister’s subordinate, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, worked “promptly” and “effectively” Alexander Kurenkov.
Is the Prime Minister “cleansing” himself “of negativity”?
How much Mishustin keeps his finger on the pulse of the work of the Cabinet can be judged by the story of his resignation Sergei Shoiguwho showed complete ineffectiveness as Minister of Defense in the conditions of the Northern Military District. In addition, the number of deputies and generals from the close circle of the failed first “Tuvan marshal” who became involved in criminal cases of corruption is simply off the charts.
It turns out as in the saying: where it is thin, it breaks. It is not surprising that, simultaneously with numerous “punches,” publications appear on the network, on the one hand, about the prime minister’s attempts to “tame” Telegram’s top managers, and on the other, about “cleansing” the network of information compromising him.
And he really has something to clean up. For example, many questions arise about the purchase by the Mishustin family in 2001 of a mansion with an area of 900 square meters and costing about 600 million rubles in the cottage village “Cotton Way” on Rublevo-Uspenskoye Highway, as well as the connections of an official (and not only relatives) with an odious businessman Alexander Udodovwho gained fame as a specialist in illegal VAT refund schemes precisely at the time when Mishustin himself headed the Federal Tax Service.
On the Internet you can find references to the possible acquaintance of the future prime minister with the leaders of the Solntsevskaya organized crime group, on the wave of “transformation” into respectable “businessmen” who carried out tax schemes, “thief in law” Zakhary Kalashov (Shakro Molodoy), as well as a developer Dmitry Smychkovsky. The latter, we recall, “lit up” in a high-profile story with an attempt to redeem for $5 million crime boss Andrey Kochuykov (Italian) – the closest associate of Shakro Molodoy, who was arrested by the security forces.
If at least part of this information is true, then Mishustin’s fuss with cleaning up the “global network” becomes understandable. At the same time, his subordinates compile “fake” statistics, which are not only announced to the population, but also placed on the president’s desk. With this approach, one can hardly talk about the government’s constructive work, but rather about “patching holes,” which are becoming more and more numerous every day.
