Bet on warm
The main sources of greenhouse gas emissions around the world are in the hands of industrial tycoons. These same people have enormous lobbying and media resources to influence public attitudes towards the problem of global warming. For many years, Russian industrialists were forced to look to the West on climate issues, but now they are trying to play their own game. What could this lead to?
Oversaw climate policy in Russia since the end of 2020 Anatoly Chubais. At the same time, the climate committee of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) was headed by a billionaire Andrey Melnichenko – founder of the energy holding SUEK and fertilizer manufacturer EuroChem. In 2022, Chubais fled the country, and the presidential adviser remained chiefly responsible for climate issues in the Kremlin Ruslan Edelgeriev (in 2024 he received the status of assistant to the president). Against this background, Andrei Melnichenko began to show greater activity.
Let’s go through the forest
The position expressed by Chubais was quite simple – we need to follow in the wake of European politics.
In general, the meaning of the reasoning was as follows: it is necessary to fit the country into the rules of the game proposed by Europe, otherwise, in the end, you may lose your sales markets. At the same time, Anatoly Borisovich stood on the position of a patriot-statist with his other foot: it turned out that he proposed levying a carbon tax in Russia – and therefore replenishing the budget at the expense of wealthy tycoons. One can only guess what kind of somersault the “father of privatization” could have pulled off in this field. It is possible that he would take an active part in the distribution of carbon quotas for specific enterprises.
Ruslan Edelgeriev has not yet been seen participating in lobbying wars regarding climate issues within Russia. However, at international conferences he is trying to get Russian industry to delay the modernization of production.
Floods are beneficial The idea of going your own way was soon openly supported by industrialists in the person of Andrei Melnichenko. In August 2022, he published an article in which he argued that the topic of reducing carbon emissions remains relevant because Asian buyers of Russian goods are almost as concerned about it as European ones. However, in essence, it was proposed to focus on planting forests. And Melnichenko called the development of independent infrastructure the primary task: verification and validation, collection and analysis of carbon reporting, creation of favorable conditions for the implementation of climate projects and the circulation of carbon units, as well as the creation of national climate and ESG ratings.
Back then it was difficult to understand what exactly the billionaire meant, but now it becomes clearer. Recently, the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences published a study stating that an increase in average annual air temperature by 1 degree will bring Russia’s GDP 1.2 trillion rubles. It is reported that the calculation is based on a comparison of quantitative estimates of possible benefits and damages from warming in different areas of the economy. Among industries, construction will be one of the main beneficiaries of warming, scientists say. Builders will receive profits due to the fact that they will eliminate the consequences of natural disasters associated with warming – floods, mudflows, strong winds, thawing of permafrost. Large-scale benefits are projected in agriculture and forestry. Another promising sector is the Northern Sea Route: melting ice caused by warming increases the duration of navigation along it.
The benefits, of course, look rather dubious. The constant repair of destructible infrastructure is a so-so plus. The sale of agricultural products for export and the development of the Northern Sea Route also need to be discussed with an eye to international sanctions. However, scientists make reservations in their report, but the media retelling their report often do not. Warming is presented as a clear benefit for Russia and harm for its main geopolitical rival, the West. An important detail that should not be overlooked is that the report was prepared with the support of the Andrey Melnichenko Foundation.
It seems that the billionaire did not say anything directly, but it becomes clear that he is pushing the line towards refusing to reduce greenhouse emissions. And the opposite would be surprising, since power plants running on coal and gas bring him incredible income personally. The principle of “bees against honey” never works.
Russia joined the international climate regulation process by first adopting the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and then the Paris Agreement (2015). According to the latter, the country has made voluntary commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25–30% by 2030 compared to the level of the 90s. The calculation is carried out taking into account the absorption capacity of forests. Therefore, the promise can be fulfilled not only by actually reducing emissions, but also by planting trees. In Russia there is plenty of space for green spaces, so the Russian Federation will probably fulfill its obligations in this aspect of the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the agreement gave Western countries a reason to introduce a “carbon tax” as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. An additional fee is imposed on products whose production released too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (this occurs mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels – oil, gas, coal). Given the current state of domestic industry and energy, Russian imports would become a source of such payments to the European treasury. To maintain competitive prices for Russian goods in Europe, Russian production processes would have to be adjusted to European environmental requirements, but how and at whose expense is unclear. Another option for developing the situation is to collect a carbon tax in Russia and agree with the Europeans on mutual offset. And use the collected money to carry out modernization. But taking into account the specifics of the current diplomatic relations between Russia and Europe, this looks fantastic. In addition, supplies of Russian goods to Europe are already limited. Therefore, the question arises: is it worth further pushing the topic of real emissions reduction or is it enough to report on the implementation of the Paris Agreement simply at the expense of forest area? An experiment is currently being conducted on Sakhalin: local enterprises pay a “carbon tax” and by 2025 they must meet quotas and achieve so-called carbon neutrality. The announced deadline is approaching; soon it will be necessary to make some decision based on the results of the experiment. It is not surprising that the struggle between lobby groups is intensifying.
